Publications
Shaking up Foreign Finance: FDI in a Post-Disaster World
Economics of Disaster and Climate Change (2024) [Link]
Working Paper & Poster
This paper studies the effects earthquakes have on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) within a country. I use a dynamic difference-in-difference model to estimate the impact of geophysical disaster exposure in 416 Indonesian districts. The effects are only temporary: FDI inflows plummet by 90% on average in the first year after an earthquake before recovering to pre-earthquake levels. The effect is largely driven by shocks through affected upstream industries within local supply chains, and centered within the manufacturing sector. This highlights the importance to also consider indirect earthquake effects through spatial and production networks, besides the direct effects on labor and capital.
Related conference proceeding:
The complexity of disaster impacts: An example on foreign investment in Indonesia
Revue d’économie du développement, 2023/3-4 (Vol. 35)
Ongoing work
Crisis-Driven Mobility: Exploring The Impact of Complex Disasters on Sub-Saharan Africa’s Rural Population
Abstract
Climate change heightens the likelihood of interconnected natural hazards. This paper aims to assess how such events shape migration patterns in Sub-Saharan Africa on a 10x10 km resolution. Using recent dynamic difference-in-difference estimators, the paper reveals a postponing effect of migratory responses, with interconnected climate-driven hazards being responsible for the strongest responses. The findings suggest that the migration pattern between rural and urban areas is partially influenced by such intricate environments, and it is imperative for policy makers to consider such distortions.A Global Replicable Open-Source High-Resolution Hazard Database
Abstract
This project aims to create a globally applicable dataset on a high-resolution level for 19 IPCC natural hazard classes. It incorporates pre-existing databases and combines 54 different satellite products and databases from current publications. The data covers monthly level aggregates from 2000 to 2019. It aims to provide economists and policy makers with improved access to remote sensing products to ameliorate predictions made for post-disaster studies.Modelling Urban Growth under Rising Climate Risk
Abstract
Sub-Saharan African cities are among the fastest growing in the world but face significant climatic risks. This study investigates how exposure to extreme climate events has shaped the economic, demographic, and physical growth of 5,821 cities in the region between 2000 and 2020. Using high-resolution remote sensing data combined with a dynamic panel and event study approach, we find that climate-driven shocks lead to accelerated informal settlement expansion and reduced economic growth, particularly in medium-sized cities, which exhibit low resilience to these shocks and higher poverty. In addition, these shocks fuel food price inflation, highlighting welfare implications. Finally, the paper documents heterogeneous responses to a chosen set of shocks depending on the location of businesses and households within cities. These findings emphasize the need for urban policies also in mid-sized cities that enhance resilience to climate risks, particularly through improved adaptation to heat and through economic support for vulnerable urban populationsAdditional Projects:
- The Macrofinancial Burden of Climate Change: Building climate-resilience under debt distress with A.Jaber
- Geospatial Modelling of Climate-Induced Tropical Disease Outbreaks: A deep-learning approach
- The Price of Prediction Error: Evaluating Excess-Mortality related to Climate Missprediction